Ronald Reagan Record Correction Site

Did President Reagan’s 1986 Immigration Bill cause California to become a permanent Democratic Electoral State?

The Need for Immigration Reform

During the 1980 Presidential campaign, Ronald Reagan suggested it would be better for America to allow immigrants to come in and out of the country legally with work permits. This would help businesses hire necessary additional workers upon seasonal needs and provide assurance to the immigrants. He was open to the idea of citizenship for those with established roots. This was his motivation for the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) in November 1986. 

Contents of the Bill

This legislation would provide tighter border security at the Mexican border. Employers would face fines for hiring illegal immigrants. But more importantly, any immigrant in the United States that entered before January 1, 1982 would be offered legal permanent residence (LPR) status. It also provided improvements to existing laws to allow better enforcement for the immigration agencies. They had greater capabilities to check employers for work authorization of employees. The bill prohibited employers from hiring illegal aliens. It also expanded visa programs for guest workers for businesses. Aliens would not be eligible for welfare, food stamps, and most other government benefits for five years. It also allowed for a 50% increase in the Border Patrol personnel, as long as Congress provided the money. The Federal government would also provide states with money for costs for health care and education for those that gained legal status.

Reagan did have reservations about the bill. He viewed the bill’s key provisions as a means to reduce illegal immigration by providing less job opportunities since businesses would no longer be allowed to hire illegal immigrants. He believed that increasing the Border Patrol would also allow the U.S. to control entry.

In 1986, it was estimated that 6 million illegal aliens were in the United States. Of these 6 million, approximately 2.7 million were here before 1982, and would be eligible to apply for LPR. Reagan’s desire for this bill was due to his belief that many of the people were being exploited either financially or physically. He wanted to fix this issue for those that put down roots and lived here, even though they may have entered illegally. After the law went into effect in 1987, 66,000 unauthorized persons were legalized in 1988 and another 492,000 in 1989.^{1 Eventually, a total of 1.9 million would become citizens across the country by 1996.}

California Demographics and Voter Registration Changes

California’s population grew dramatically between 1970 when it had 19,953,134 million people and 2020 when it grew to 39,538,223 million. The number of eligible people to vote grew from 13,322,000 in 1972 to 26,912,931 in 2024. Ronald Reagan’s 1986 immigration bill only allowed for citizenship for 2.7 million, of which only 1.9 million requested citizenship from 1987 to 1996. The 1.9 million were not all new California citizens. They were spread out across the entire country with most being in the south, southwest, and west.

Republicans won Presidential elections between 1972 and 1988. This may have been due to native sons, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan being the candidates. However, George H. W. Bush did win in 1988 with 5 million votes. The 1990s were not good for Republican presidential candidates. Bush lost 1,424,343 voters from 1988 to 1992, and lost. This was not due to new voters, but the perceived poor economy. Clinton only gained 400,000 voters over 1988 with Dukakis. It was Bush losing over 1.4 million that doomed his re-election in California’s vote.

Between 1988 and 1992, the Democrats gained 358,546 new voters in California, while the Republicans gained 187,428. Reviewing the voter registration differences between Democrats and Republicans shows that between 1972 and 2012, the Democrats maintained an average advantage each cycle of 1.9 million registered voters over the Republicans.

The large increase in Democratic registered voters significantly changed between 2016 and 2024. Each presidential cycle saw an average of 4.4 million Democratic registered voters over Republicans. It doubled in 2016 and never went back down to 1972 to 2012 levels. 

Liberalized Voters

California was once an entreprenurial high technology industry, large defense contractor, and an agricultural economy. This type of economy in the 1950s through 1980s had a very large conservative base of voters. The economy began shifting from hardware based technology companies to software oriented companies in the 2000s. Many manufacturers began to move their hardware operations overseas. Internet-based software companies grew significantly in the late 90s to 2020s replacing the hardware manufacturers. Agriculture remains a large base of California's economy today. The conservative voters that dominated the economy from the 1950s to 2000s were replaced by more younger, liberal workers that came up through universities in the late 1990s and 2000s, and the new Internet economy. The appeal of younger Democratic candidates like Bill Clinton in 1992 and Barack Obama in 2008 drove Democrat wins in California. Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected governor in the state, but was not a traditional conservative. He was much more liberal than Ronald Reagan, who was governor in the 1960s. California slowly became a Democratic stronghold.  

What changed that allowed the Democrats to turn California into a blue state?

In 2010 California Democrats ran a ballot measure in Proposition 14 to switch the state to a Top Two primary voting system. It essentially created a single ballot for the primary elections. There were no longer to be Democrat and Republican primaries. This would be for statewide and legislative offices, including U.S. Senate and House seats. It was passed by 54% to 46% and went into effect January 1, 2011. The Democrats enjoyed a 2 million registered voter advantage. This meant that the chances of a Republican finishing in the top two in the single primary would diminish significantly. The worst part of this law is that Republican Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger agreed to it. He doomed the Republican party in the state by supporting it. Democrats have dominated each primary for main state offices since the ballot measure was passed.

In order to win elections, candidates that may have normally been registered as Republicans began to register as Democrats to appeal to the voters, due to the now growing disparity between party registration. Republican registrations have stagnated at 5.4 to 5.7 million voters, while Democratic registered voters increased from 6.6 million to 10.3 million. Republican voters are outnumbered 2 to 1. With a buffer of 5 million Democratic votes, it is not easy for a true Republican candidate to place in the top two vote getters. 

In conclusion, the Top Two primary switch in 2010, and the subsequent increase in 3 million additional Democratic registered voters between 2004 and 2024, along with more liberalized voters are the main causes for California’s blue state status. Ronald Reagan’s 1986 Immigration bill did not significantly add to the Democratic voter rolls in the 1990s to allow the turning of California into a permanent blue state. Its effects were limited to 1.9 million immigrants becoming citizens across the country, of which California did not receive all 1.9 million. The voter roles increased from 7.1 million Democrats in 2004 to 10.3 million in 2024. This occurred long after Ronald Reagan's bill granted citizenship in the 1980s and early 1990s.

California Election Registration

1 CPIP.UCI.EDU

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